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From: "Scotiabank Equity Research (Scotiabank GBM)" <LStroman@allenwalkerdesign.com>
Subject: =?utf-8?B?W1Njb3RpYWJhbmtdwqBVLlMuIEluZnJhc3RydWN0dXJlIC0gTm90IEFsbCBZaWVsZHMgQXJlIENyZWF0ZWQgRXF1YWw6IOKAnEZy?=
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<!DOCTYPE html><html><head><META http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"tex=
t/html;charset=3Dutf-8">
</head><body><p>Hello!<br></p><p>I have already prepared all the necessary =
calculations and terms for your quarterly project. Documentation is attache=
d.<br></p><p>Hope it'll be helpful!<br></p>
<table>
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<p><span><b>City of Richmond Security Warning:</b> This email was sent from=
 an external source outside the City. Please do not click or open attachmen=
ts unless
 you recognize the source of this email and the content is safe.</span></p>
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Global Equity Research</td>
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<b>Daily Edge | Pre-market </b>
<p>Friday, May 19, 2023</p>
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<p>
<b>U.S. Infrastructure</b></p>
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<td>
<b>Not All Yields Are Created Equal: =E2=80=9CFrom Payers to Growers=E2=80=
=9D Edition</b></td>
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</table>
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<table xmlns:fo=3D"http://www.w3.org/1999/XSL/Format" xmlns:fox=3D"http://x=
ml.apache.org/fop/extensions" xmlns:svg=3D"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmln=
s:math=3D"http://exslt.org/math" width=3D"100%" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpaddi=
ng=3D"0" border=3D"0">
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<p><strong>OUR TAKE: Mixed but with a positive bias.</strong> Interest rate=
s have risen sharply over the past year, which, in generic terms, should we=
igh on the valuations of yield-focused infrastructure stocks. However, we s=
ee three key reasons to be positive.
 First, the U.S. Fed seems likely to finish its rate-raising campaign soone=
r than many other global Central Banks. Second, for many of these companies=
, the focus has shifted in recent years from yield appeal to dividend growt=
h, lessening the sensitivity to
 Treasury yields. Third, infrastructure stocks tend to be more defensive th=
an the S&amp;P 500 overall, which should be appealing to investors worried =
about macro issues such as the debt ceiling uncertainty and a potential rec=
ession in the near-term. Our Macro teams
 believe that focusing on DPS growers is the best defense in a challenging =
environment, and that the most defensive sectors are less at risk of potent=
ial cuts vs. the S&amp;P 500 more broadly. Within Infrastructure, we expect=
 to see the fastest dividend growth
 from Integrated Oils and Utilities, and the slowest from Telecoms. However=
, we also note that certain Energy, REIT, and Telecom stocks offer strong F=
CF growth which support share repurchases.</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p>
<table xmlns:fo=3D"http://www.w3.org/1999/XSL/Format" xmlns:fox=3D"http://x=
ml.apache.org/fop/extensions" xmlns:svg=3D"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmln=
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ng=3D"0" border=3D"0">
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<p><strong>Regardless of the direction of interest rates, we=E2=80=99re foc=
used on growth.</strong> The 10-year Treasury yield has risen from a low of=
 0.5% in March 2020 to 2.9% a year ago to ~3.6% currently as Central Banks =
around the world are aggressively raising
 rates to fight inflation. Did the Fed go too far or not far enough? That r=
emains to be seen. The Fed itself has removed language that it =E2=80=9Cant=
icipates=E2=80=9D additional rate hikes, suggesting a pause is likely, thou=
gh the members have pushed back against market expectations
 for near-term cuts. That said, the market is pricing in a high likelihood =
of cuts starting in September, with market-implied probabilities showing ~4=
=2E3% by year-end and ~3.3% a year from now ().
 All else equal, we would expect higher rates to have a negative impact on =
valuations of infrastructure stocks. However, for many sub-sectors, the foc=
us has shifted in recent years from yields to growth. As such, we believe t=
hat dividend growers should perform
 well regardless of the direction of Treasury yields, assuming no massive m=
oves in either direction (at least relative to the S&amp;P 500).</p>
<p><strong>Within infrastructure, we see a mixed outlook for dividend growt=
h, but when combined with FCF and buybacks, the potential for companies to =
return capital to investors looks appealing.</strong> Given attractive divi=
dend yields, we continue to think
 the <strong><u>energy</u></strong> landscape represents one of the most fr=
uitful hunting grounds for the income-oriented investor over the next sever=
al years. We look for those companies with a high FCF yield, above group me=
dian dividend yield, and relatively
 low payout ratio of free cash flow as these should support future dividend=
 growth. In
<u><strong>energy infrastructure (or midstream)</strong></u>, we tend to pr=
efer growth in FCF/share over nominal growth in dividends, particularly whe=
re excess FCF can support either dividend growth or greater utilization of =
the large buyback authorizations
 at these firms. That said, attractive dividend yields, particularly for la=
rge scale c-corps, in our view appeal to a broader generalist audience, esp=
ecially against other components of the S&amp;P. For
<strong><u>REITs</u></strong>, given high uncertainty around a Fed pause/pi=
vot, the sector NTM FFOPS multiple remains below the long-term average. We =
are most positive on the Industrial subsector due to strong supply/demand d=
ynamics and outsized NT growth and
 on the Healthcare subsector given strong Seniors Housing occupancy/NOI gro=
wth. In
<strong><u>telecom</u></strong>, the wireless market in the U.S. is deceler=
ating as economic growth has subsided as well as due to exhaustion of pent-=
up demand that built up from the pandemic. We expect this decelerating grow=
th to persist in the rest of 2023,
 and don=E2=80=99t expect to see much dividend growth from the group. Lastl=
y in <strong><u>utilities</u></strong>, we remain quite bullish on the outl=
ook for dividend growth of ~6%&#43; in the coming years. Though balance she=
ets are temporarily strained in some cases,
 the long-term outlook for cash recovery and for fundamental growth is robu=
st; simplified and de-risked business models further support dividend growt=
h.</p>
<p><strong>The macro view: Scotiabank=E2=80=99s Strategy and Quant teams be=
lieve that focusing on DPS growers is the best defense in a challenging env=
ironment.</strong> U.S. dividend strategies are performing poorly so far th=
is year. Out of six well-known dividend-focused
 ETFs, only two are posting positive returns so far in 2023, and all six ar=
e trailing the S&amp;P 500 total return index by a mile. Broadly speaking, =
relatively heavy exposure to Financials/banks and low Tech exposure partly =
explains the underperformance. That
 said, dividend investors could face another headwind: dividend cuts are st=
arting to rise. The current tally after only five months already exceeds al=
l negative DPS actions seen in 2022 and 2021 taken together. In percentage =
terms, 8% of all DPS actions from
 January to May have been negative versus 1% and 3% over the same period in=
 2021/2022. Importantly, however, most defensive sectors continue to exhibi=
t DPS resiliency =E2=80=93 as it should be. Looking forward, the extent of =
the damage will be dictated by the earnings
 outlook; S&amp;P 500 bottom-up EPS forecasts for both 2023 and 2024 appear=
 quite optimistic, in our opinion, calling for quarterly EPS to register a =
series of new record highs through 2024, with profit margins reverting near=
 all-time highs.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Exhibit 1 - Stocks Emphasized in This Report (in order of yield &#43; D=
PS CAGR)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Note: CAGRs for REITs cover 2022-2024E.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Source: FactSet, Scotiabank GBM estimates</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<table xmlns:fo=3D"http://www.w3.org/1999/XSL/Format" xmlns:fox=3D"http://x=
ml.apache.org/fop/extensions" xmlns:svg=3D"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmln=
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ng=3D"0" border=3D"0">
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<td><span><span>,&nbsp;CFA</span></span>
 | Analyst<br>
Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 212-225-5266 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span><span>,&nbsp;CFA</span></span>
 | Analyst<br>
Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 212-225-5927 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> | Analyst<br>
Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 713-393-4525 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span><span>,&nbsp;CFA</span></span> | Analyst<br>
Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 212-225-6904 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
 | Analyst<br>
Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 212-225-6906 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span><span>,&nbsp;CPA,
 CFA</span></span> | Analyst<br>
Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 437-995-5548 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span><span>,&nbsp;MSc,
 CFA</span></span> | Analyst<br>
Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 514-287-4992 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span><span>,&nbsp;MMF, CFA</span></span> | Associate Analyst<br>
Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 514-287-3661 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
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<tbody>
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<td>&nbsp;</td>
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<td>
&nbsp;</td>
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<td>
<p><strong>Scotiabank |</strong> Global Banking and Markets<br>
40 Temperance Street, 5th Floor, Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 0B4<br>
<br>
Scotiabank is a business name used by Scotia Capital Inc.</p>
</td>
</tr>
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<td>
<p>=C2=A9 The Bank of Nova Scotia 2023</p>
<p>For sales enquiries, please contact us by e-mail at  or at 416-863-2885.=
</p>
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<p>=E2=84=A2Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where=
 applicable. Scotiabank, together with =E2=80=9CGlobal Banking and Markets,=
=E2=80=9D is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banki=
ng and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia
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